ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.83 – 391.35

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 516

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±11.7

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 12.64Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 34.08Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 34.11Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.2 ±9.8

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 273.64Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 68.17Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 49.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6162, 5689, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 5689, 6875

Auto

18.6 25%

Teleop

32.5 43%

Endgame

24.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4678, 3739, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4678, 3739, 1229

Auto

74.6 20%

Teleop

201.7 53%

Endgame

104.8 27%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.8pts

Blue projected score391.4pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -310.5
Score range: 47–425
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 188.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.6Season APEX519.2

18.6Auto74.6

32.5Teleop201.7

24.1Endgame104.8

3Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	86
teleop	47	318
endgame	19	112
foul	5	0
total	78	516

Result

Final score

78 – 516

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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