ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.87 – 14.1

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.6 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 0.67Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 79.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 47.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.3 ±12.8

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 1.04Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX -16.86Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 29.92Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 4688, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 4688, 781

Auto

15.5 12%

Teleop

79.4 60%

Endgame

37.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8081, 10611, 4940

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 10611, 4940

Auto

13.1 100%

Teleop

-6.0 0%

Endgame

5.3 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.9pts

Blue projected score14.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.8
Score range: -20–161
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 190.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.6Season APEX185.3

15.5Auto13.1

79.4Teleop-6

37.5Endgame5.3

36Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	33
teleop	35	50
endgame	32	23
foul	0	0
total	111	106

Result

Final score

111 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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