ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

393.21 – 94.13

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604 ±9.3

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 38.42Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 173.06Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 181.73Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±12.2

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -2.73Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 47.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 49.79Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 5406, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 5406, 4039

Auto

71.4 18%

Teleop

223.8 57%

Endgame

97.5 25%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6725, 5912, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6725, 5912, 5885

Auto

44.3 48%

Teleop

25.8 28%

Endgame

22.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score393.2pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 299.1
Score range: 60–427
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 188.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604Season APEX227.5

71.4Auto44.3

223.8Teleop25.8

97.5Endgame22.8

53Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	17
teleop	306	46
endgame	81	7
foul	0	0
total	416	70

Result

Final score

416 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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