ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.68 – 188.52

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±10.5

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 119.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -0.67Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 140.28Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±11.7

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 113.76Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 18.13Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 56.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 11362, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 11362, 4920

Auto

44.0 17%

Teleop

141.8 56%

Endgame

69.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 865, 7058, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 865, 7058, 5719

Auto

28.9 15%

Teleop

107.9 58%

Endgame

50.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score258.7pts

Blue projected score188.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.2
Score range: 155–293
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 187.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.7Season APEX283.4

44Auto28.9

141.8Teleop107.9

69.5Endgame50.1

118Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	57
teleop	183	85
endgame	136	7
foul	0	0
total	369	149

Result

Final score

369 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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