ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.66 – 96.2

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±13.1

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 34.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 32.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 49.22Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.3 ±10.4

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 59.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 1.89Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 34.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11215, 3756, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11215, 3756, 4951

Auto

25.4 23%

Teleop

52.9 48%

Endgame

32.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2386, 2634, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2386, 2634, 6875

Auto

28.7 30%

Teleop

19.6 20%

Endgame

48.0 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.7pts

Blue projected score96.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 62–151
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 188.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.2Season APEX275.3

25.4Auto28.7

52.9Teleop19.6

32.7Endgame48

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	30
teleop	15	56
endgame	25	5
foul	5	0
total	52	91

Result

Final score

52 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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