ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.77 – 146.3

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.2 ±12.2

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 46.55Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 17.12Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -0.9Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±11.7

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 71.46Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 52.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 22.27Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5912, 6162, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5912, 6162, 771

Auto

25.2 44%

Teleop

28.0 49%

Endgame

3.8 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3739, 5719, 4617

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3739, 5719, 4617

Auto

30.2 20%

Teleop

65.7 45%

Endgame

51.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score146.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.5
Score range: 29–180
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 190.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.2Season APEX254

25.2Auto30.2

28Teleop65.7

3.8Endgame51.6

34Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	27	69
endgame	8	49
foul	0	30
total	71	167

Result

Final score

71 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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