ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.47 – 271.8

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 131.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.8 ±12.8

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 13.95Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 4.82Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 48.7Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±11.7

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 74.57Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 10.46Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 186.77Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7058, 6725, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 6725, 5689

Auto

6.5 10%

Teleop

45.6 73%

Endgame

10.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 865, 8789, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 865, 8789, 2702

Auto

49.4 18%

Teleop

154.4 57%

Endgame

65.8 24%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score271.8pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.3
Score range: 33–306
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.8Season APEX526.5

6.5Auto49.4

45.6Teleop154.4

10.6Endgame65.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	65
teleop	13	337
endgame	23	112
foul	0	5
total	51	519

Result

Final score

51 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 131.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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