ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.85 – 75.49

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.1 ±12.8

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 26.06Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 2Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 30.79Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.8 ±14.1

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 2.78Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 64.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 8.65Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8081, 6162, 5719

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 6162, 5719

Auto

22.3 43%

Teleop

14.3 28%

Endgame

15.3 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11215, 2386, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11215, 2386, 6725

Auto

14.0 19%

Teleop

38.5 52%

Endgame

21.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.9pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.6
Score range: 22–112
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.1Season APEX210.8

22.3Auto14

14.3Teleop38.5

15.3Endgame21.7

52Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	13	55
endgame	12	38
foul	5	0
total	47	103

Result

Final score

47 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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