ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.33 – 0

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384 ±12.2

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 32.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 24.13Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 113.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.4 ±12.2

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -19.12Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -12.98Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 27.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11215, 772, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11215, 772, 4907

Auto

29.9 18%

Teleop

86.0 53%

Endgame

46.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11362, 2634, 4940

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11362, 2634, 4940

Auto

19.6 0%

Teleop

-19.1 100%

Endgame

-5.0 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.3pts

Blue projected score-4.4pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.3
Score range: -34–204
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 190.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384Season APEX161.4

29.9Auto19.6

86Teleop-19.1

46.6Endgame-5

42Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	16
teleop	114	36
endgame	52	13
foul	0	5
total	227	70

Result

Final score

227 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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