ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

452.84 – 173.05

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 656.5 ±10.7

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 14.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 167.55Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 270.5Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 58.12Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 91.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 23.06Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4617, 5406, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4617, 5406, 4678

Auto

83.9 19%

Teleop

241.7 54%

Endgame

122.0 27%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 4688, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 4688, 9262

Auto

22.5 14%

Teleop

104.2 63%

Endgame

39.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score452.8pts

Blue projected score173.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 279.8
Score range: 139–487
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 186.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

656.5Season APEX298.3

83.9Auto22.5

241.7Teleop104.2

122Endgame39.1

36Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	25
teleop	301	51
endgame	75	27
foul	0	0
total	489	103

Result

Final score

489 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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