ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.31 – 110.51

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.4 ±12.8

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 28.79Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 3.21Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 25.31Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.8 ±10.4

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 51.64Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 26.15Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 32.72Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4940, 5408, 6162

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 5408, 6162

Auto

27.9 51%

Teleop

39.7 73%

Endgame

-13.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 5719, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 5719, 5885

Auto

41.5 37%

Teleop

36.6 33%

Endgame

33.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.3pts

Blue projected score110.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.2
Score range: 23–145
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.4Season APEX282.8

27.9Auto41.5

39.7Teleop36.6

-13.2Endgame33.8

0Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	64
teleop	41	92
endgame	14	58
foul	0	0
total	73	214

Result

Final score

73 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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