ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.27 – 57.57

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±9.8

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 156.54Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 30.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX -5.05Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.9 ±11

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 54.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 12.84Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -10.03Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5406, 781, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 781, 10611

Auto

38.6 22%

Teleop

78.7 44%

Endgame

60.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 6875, 11362

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 6875, 11362

Auto

23.0 41%

Teleop

15.3 27%

Endgame

17.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.3pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.7
Score range: 24–216
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437Season APEX167.9

38.6Auto23

78.7Teleop15.3

60.6Endgame17.8

13Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	9
teleop	162	22
endgame	76	13
foul	0	0
total	292	44

Result

Final score

292 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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