ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.88 – 322.06

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

414 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 102.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.4 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 21.42Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 159.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 61.68Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.1 ±12.7

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -6.51Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 287.81Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 40.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5689, 2702, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5689, 2702, 3739

Auto

49.7 20%

Teleop

141.2 58%

Endgame

52.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2634, 4678, 11215

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 4678, 11215

Auto

27.6 9%

Teleop

200.6 64%

Endgame

86.0 27%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.9pts

Blue projected score322.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 210–355
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.4Season APEX434.1

49.7Auto27.6

141.2Teleop200.6

52.7Endgame86

31Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	84
teleop	211	118
endgame	127	71
foul	15	15
total	414	288

Result

Final score

414 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 102.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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