ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.85 – 42.26

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

401 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.6 ±11.7

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 163.94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 29.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 251.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±11.7

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 16.78Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 11.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 14.02Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4039, 4617, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4039, 4617, 2702

Auto

73.5 17%

Teleop

262.7 60%

Endgame

105.2 24%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7058, 10611, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 10611, 5408

Auto

18.6 45%

Teleop

14.1 34%

Endgame

8.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score444.9pts

Blue projected score42.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 402.6
Score range: 5–482
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.6Season APEX218.3

73.5Auto18.6

262.7Teleop14.1

105.2Endgame8.5

33Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	11
teleop	224	12
endgame	129	7
foul	0	0
total	401	30

Result

Final score

401 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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