ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.25 – 238.8

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

272 – 308

Prediction missed · off by 66.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±11.7

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 176.51Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 58.55Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 100.19Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.6 ±11.7

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 4.31Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 30.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 203.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4920, 4940, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4920, 4940, 865

Auto

39.9 12%

Teleop

190.7 58%

Endgame

100.4 30%

Strengths

· 4920 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8789, 5885, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8789, 5885, 4039

Auto

65.3 27%

Teleop

115.6 48%

Endgame

57.5 24%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score335.3pts

Blue projected score238.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.4
Score range: 207–367
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.1Season APEX427.6

39.9Auto65.3

190.7Teleop115.6

100.4Endgame57.5

14Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	58
teleop	174	179
endgame	66	56
foul	0	15
total	272	308

Result

Final score

272 – 308

Prediction missed · off by 66.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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