ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.98 – 91.48

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±10.4

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 27.21Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 19.87Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 16.9Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.5 ±9.8

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 11.1Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 24.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 56Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5719, 9262, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5719, 9262, 771

Auto

17.9 30%

Teleop

19.7 33%

Endgame

22.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 772, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 772, 4951

Auto

29.4 30%

Teleop

23.6 24%

Endgame

44.6 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64pts

Blue projected score91.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.5
Score range: 31–124
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.2Season APEX280.5

17.9Auto29.4

19.7Teleop23.6

22.6Endgame44.6

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	43	39
endgame	13	37
foul	0	0
total	75	99

Result

Final score

75 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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