ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.72 – 81.79

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.8 ±9.8

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 7.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 43.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 107.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262 ±12.2

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 19Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX -13.37Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 76.16Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 781, 2386, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 2386, 4907

Auto

40.3 26%

Teleop

52.0 34%

Endgame

61.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5912, 4617, 5024

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5912, 4617, 5024

Auto

34.5 44%

Teleop

28.8 37%

Endgame

15.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.7pts

Blue projected score81.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.9
Score range: 50–191
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 180.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.8Season APEX262

40.3Auto34.5

52Teleop28.8

61Endgame15.3

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	48
teleop	127	97
endgame	75	55
foul	0	0
total	253	200

Result

Final score

253 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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