ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 210.83

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.3 ±12.2

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -14.93Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -24.94Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX -22.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±13.7

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 147.69Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 14.78Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 48.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6162, 11362, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

-62.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 11362, 10611

Auto

18.7 0%

Teleop

-58.9 78%

Endgame

-35.2 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5406, 8081, 11215

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 8081, 11215

Auto

29.9 14%

Teleop

125.6 57%

Endgame

63.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-62.6pts

Blue projected score210.8pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.8
Score range: -33–244
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 182.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.3Season APEX380.5

18.7Auto29.9

-58.9Teleop125.6

-35.2Endgame63.2

65Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	11
teleop	30	89
endgame	14	48
foul	5	15
total	70	163

Result

Final score

70 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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