ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.06 – 158.9

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±11.2

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 16.04Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 127.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX -10.39Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±11

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 63.25Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5024Raider Robotics

Season APEX 125.5Event APEX 82.37Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 13.28Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8789, 4907, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8789, 4907, 10611

Auto

35.3 26%

Teleop

38.7 28%

Endgame

63.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3739, 5024, 11362

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3739, 5024, 11362

Auto

56.7 38%

Teleop

65.8 44%

Endgame

28.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.1pts

Blue projected score158.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.8
Score range: 100–192
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.7Season APEX259.9

35.3Auto56.7

38.7Teleop65.8

63.3Endgame28.2

79Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	41
teleop	38	70
endgame	6	0
foul	15	0
total	99	111

Result

Final score

99 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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