ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.35 – 74.05

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 103.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477 ±13.1

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 18.94Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 93.19Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 142.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.4 ±11.7

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 37.17Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 46.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -9.65Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11215, 2702, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11215, 2702, 4920

Auto

53.1 21%

Teleop

115.0 46%

Endgame

80.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 781, 6875, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 781, 6875, 6725

Auto

11.4 15%

Teleop

40.1 54%

Endgame

22.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.4pts

Blue projected score74.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 180.3
Score range: 41–287
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 180.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477Season APEX186.4

53.1Auto11.4

115Teleop40.1

80.4Endgame22.7

14Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	8
teleop	302	7
endgame	95	8
foul	0	0
total	411	23

Result

Final score

411 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 103.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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