ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.95 – 126.61

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 71.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.5 ±11.2

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX -0.22Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 14.93Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 228.24Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±10.4

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 96.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 9.89Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 19.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9262, 6162, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

243 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9262, 6162, 4678

Auto

30.3 13%

Teleop

150.3 62%

Endgame

60.6 25%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 771, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 771, 2634

Auto

22.3 17%

Teleop

66.7 52%

Endgame

40.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243pts

Blue projected score126.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.3
Score range: 95–275
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.5Season APEX216.3

30.3Auto22.3

150.3Teleop66.7

60.6Endgame40.4

96Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	31
teleop	179	4
endgame	45	30
foul	30	0
total	324	65

Result

Final score

324 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 71.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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