ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.13 – 220.05

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±10.4

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 28.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 41.27Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 69.48Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±11.7

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 20.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 207.11Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX -7.56Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 5719, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 5719, 2386

Auto

32.4 24%

Teleop

71.3 53%

Endgame

30.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 4039, 7058

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 4039, 7058

Auto

25.5 12%

Teleop

134.0 62%

Endgame

58.3 27%

Strengths

· 4039 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.1pts

Blue projected score220.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.9
Score range: 107–252
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 176.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.5Season APEX373.6

32.4Auto25.5

71.3Teleop134

30.8Endgame58.3

75Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	51
teleop	78	192
endgame	61	63
foul	0	0
total	186	306

Result

Final score

186 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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