ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.08 – 136.74

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.9 ±11.2

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 33.54Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 238.71Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 28.83Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±11

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 85.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 18.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 32.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8789, 4678, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8789, 4678, 6875

Auto

64.4 22%

Teleop

166.0 56%

Endgame

64.0 22%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 2634, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 2634, 5912

Auto

33.5 25%

Teleop

66.0 50%

Endgame

32.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.1pts

Blue projected score136.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.3
Score range: 100–338
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.9Season APEX263

64.4Auto33.5

166Teleop66

64Endgame32.4

9Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	19
teleop	193	21
endgame	87	32
foul	0	0
total	351	72

Result

Final score

351 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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