ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.93 – 83.56

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.3 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 49.33Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 67.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 111.99Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.7 ±12.2

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 49.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 48.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -14.51Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5689, 5885, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5689, 5885, 865

Auto

70.2 31%

Teleop

106.9 48%

Endgame

46.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 5912, 8081

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 5912, 8081

Auto

43.3 60%

Teleop

28.1 39%

Endgame

1.3 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score228.9pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.4
Score range: 52–261
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 179.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.3Season APEX196.7

70.2Auto43.3

106.9Teleop28.1

46.4Endgame1.3

47Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	17
teleop	81	34
endgame	55	13
foul	0	0
total	167	64

Result

Final score

167 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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