ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.29 – 200.8

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 148.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±11.7

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 44.79Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 79.37Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 20.13Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±9.8

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 78.79Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 118.87Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 3.14Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4940, 6875, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 6875, 771

Auto

51.8 36%

Teleop

78.2 55%

Endgame

13.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4920, 5406, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4920, 5406, 5408

Auto

32.0 16%

Teleop

106.6 52%

Endgame

64.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.3pts

Blue projected score200.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 112–233
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.4Season APEX532.1

51.8Auto32

78.2Teleop106.6

13.1Endgame64.7

0Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	64
teleop	31	222
endgame	9	122
foul	0	0
total	55	408

Result

Final score

55 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 148.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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