ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.84 – 62.33

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.3 ±9.8

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 15.5Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 51.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 224.25Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.5 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 11.41Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 12.15Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 38.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 5719, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 5719, 4678

Auto

53.5 19%

Teleop

168.3 59%

Endgame

61.5 22%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2634, 1229, 781

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 1229, 781

Auto

0.6 1%

Teleop

35.2 55%

Endgame

28.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score290.8pts

Blue projected score62.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 228.5
Score range: 30–323
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 175.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.3Season APEX265.5

53.5Auto0.6

168.3Teleop35.2

61.5Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	23
teleop	175	39
endgame	82	40
foul	0	0
total	287	102

Result

Final score

287 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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