ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.66 – 297.03

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 268

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.3 ±10.4

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 118.77Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 111.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 94.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.5 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 99.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 128.56Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 68.72Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 5885, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 5885, 2386

Auto

61.8 19%

Teleop

172.8 54%

Endgame

87.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 865, 3739

/ 100 compat

Projected

297 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 865, 3739

Auto

52.8 18%

Teleop

174.4 60%

Endgame

64.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score324.7pts

Blue projected score297pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 266–356
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.3Season APEX488.5

61.8Auto52.8

172.8Teleop174.4

87.2Endgame64

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	67
teleop	51	92
endgame	37	109
foul	0	0
total	174	268

Result

Final score

174 – 268

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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