ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.57 – 216.24

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 139.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.3 ±12.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 66.67Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 28.96Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 57.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204 ±12.8

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 78.89Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8789The Lost 10mm Sockets

Season APEX 99.3Event APEX 33.5Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 103.85Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 6725, 4617

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 6725, 4617

Auto

24.0 16%

Teleop

80.7 54%

Endgame

44.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4940, 8789, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 8789, 5689

Auto

54.3 26%

Teleop

120.6 57%

Endgame

37.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.6pts

Blue projected score216.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.7
Score range: 121–249
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.3Season APEX204

24Auto54.3

80.7Teleop120.6

44.8Endgame37.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	13	27
endgame	22	4
foul	0	0
total	46	45

Result

Final score

46 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 139.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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