ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.16 – 287.8

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 100.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±11.2

5719Pink Titans

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 28.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 69.02Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -9.61Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.9 ±10.4

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 129.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 36.47Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 121.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5719, 5406, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5719, 5406, 6725

Auto

27.7 32%

Teleop

27.7 32%

Endgame

32.2 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 10611, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 10611, 2702

Auto

34.4 12%

Teleop

159.7 55%

Endgame

94.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score287.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.6
Score range: 54–322
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.5Season APEX426.9

27.7Auto34.4

27.7Teleop159.7

32.2Endgame94.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	68
teleop	123	88
endgame	44	52
foul	0	0
total	210	208

Result

Final score

210 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 100.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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