ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.16 – 164.65

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.5 ±10.4

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 128.98Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

781Kinetic Knights

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 36.41Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 45.77Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.7 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 134.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 9.83Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 20.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4920, 781, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4920, 781, 4951

Auto

37.6 18%

Teleop

100.2 48%

Endgame

69.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 5689, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 5689, 771

Auto

41.7 26%

Teleop

70.2 44%

Endgame

49.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.2pts

Blue projected score164.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.5
Score range: 128–248
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 207.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.5Season APEX299.7

37.6Auto41.7

100.2Teleop70.2

69.3Endgame49.2

26Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	39
teleop	114	128
endgame	103	59
foul	0	0
total	241	226

Result

Final score

241 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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