ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.28 – 177.27

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

529 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.1 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 248.67Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 17.64Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 188.97Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.1 ±13.1

11215Les Panthères

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 3.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 10.08Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 164.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 771, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 771, 5406

Auto

77.7 17%

Teleop

273.4 60%

Endgame

101.9 22%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11215, 5689, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11215, 5689, 4039

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

106.3 62%

Endgame

41.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score455.3pts

Blue projected score177.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 278
Score range: 140–492
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.1Season APEX292.1

77.7Auto23.5

273.4Teleop106.3

101.9Endgame41.2

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	54
teleop	327	101
endgame	125	19
foul	0	0
total	529	174

Result

Final score

529 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 pts

Match videos

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