ONT District Windsor Essex Great Lake Event

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

442.17 – 414.5

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

547 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.1 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 244.13Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 13.15Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 184.89Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.2 ±9.8

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 164.37Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 10.61Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 239.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 771, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 771, 5406

Auto

77.2 18%

Teleop

261.5 59%

Endgame

100.8 23%

Strengths

· 2702 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4039, 5689, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4039, 5689, 4678

Auto

83.4 20%

Teleop

238.8 59%

Endgame

85.4 21%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score442.2pts

Blue projected score414.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 379–478
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 954 vs event baseline 202.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.1Season APEX546.2

77.2Auto83.4

261.5Teleop238.8

100.8Endgame85.4

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	60
teleop	357	242
endgame	110	100
foul	0	5
total	547	407

Result

Final score

547 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Match videos

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