Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.04 – 131.45

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.8 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 15.69Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 220.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 195.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±11

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 29.57Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 70.41Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 31.47Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 4476, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

432 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 4476, 1360

Auto

70.4 17%

Teleop

226.4 53%

Endgame

128.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 9562, 6110

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 9562, 6110

Auto

34.8 27%

Teleop

53.4 41%

Endgame

43.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score432pts

Blue projected score131.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 300.6
Score range: 80–483
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 666 vs event baseline 284.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.8Season APEX289.4

70.4Auto34.8

226.4Teleop53.4

128.1Endgame43.1

51Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	58
teleop	284	32
endgame	139	77
foul	5	10
total	489	177

Result

Final score

489 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Match videos

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