Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

381.37 – 445.39

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

460 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.1 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 170.56Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 48.35Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 162.46Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.4 ±9.5

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -28.32Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 276.87Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 196.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 7659, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 7659, 3161

Auto

52.5 14%

Teleop

232.9 62%

Endgame

89.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6854, 1325, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1325, 3683

Auto

88.2 20%

Teleop

243.0 55%

Endgame

107.9 25%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score381.4pts

Blue projected score445.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64
Score range: 330–496
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 852 vs event baseline 281.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.1Season APEX548.4

52.5Auto88.2

232.9Teleop243

89.9Endgame107.9

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	125	80
teleop	269	199
endgame	51	98
foul	15	15
total	460	392

Result

Final score

460 – 392

Prediction missed · off by 66 pts

Match videos

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