Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.08 – 132.4

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 32.93Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 47.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 40.86Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±11

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 29.81Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 71.49Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 31.1Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5672, 2013, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 2013, 6865

Auto

20.1 18%

Teleop

69.0 60%

Endgame

25.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 9562, 6110

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 9562, 6110

Auto

29.9 23%

Teleop

55.5 42%

Endgame

46.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score132.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.3
Score range: 70–183
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 281.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX289.4

20.1Auto29.9

69Teleop55.5

25.1Endgame46.5

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	65
teleop	24	38
endgame	11	18
foul	0	0
total	45	121

Result

Final score

45 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Match videos

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