Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.38 – 211.59

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.1 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 24.18Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 18.8Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 38.4Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±10.4

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 119.94Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 33.03Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 58.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 9263, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 9263, 7476

Auto

14.8 18%

Teleop

48.8 61%

Endgame

16.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 7757, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 7757, 9062

Auto

40.1 20%

Teleop

94.7 48%

Endgame

61.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score211.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.2
Score range: 30–263
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.1Season APEX304.4

14.8Auto40.1

48.8Teleop94.7

16.9Endgame61.2

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	6
teleop	72	59
endgame	31	52
foul	5	15
total	129	132

Result

Final score

129 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 pts

Match videos

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