Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.16 – 142.88

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

587 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 169.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.1 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 150.09Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 30.46Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 147.61Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 41.62Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 53.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 47.77Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 7659, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 7659, 3161

Auto

33.5 10%

Teleop

204.8 64%

Endgame

82.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5672, 2013, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 2013, 6865

Auto

24.3 18%

Teleop

81.8 60%

Endgame

29.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score328.2pts

Blue projected score142.9pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.3
Score range: 92–379
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 282.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.1Season APEX227.8

33.5Auto24.3

204.8Teleop81.8

82.5Endgame29.5

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	12
teleop	341	33
endgame	116	13
foul	0	5
total	587	63

Result

Final score

587 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 169.4 pts

Match videos

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