Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

444.4 – 230.23

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

484 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.8 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 18.53Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 223.56Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 202.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±10.4

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 125.09Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 38.81Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 66.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 4476, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 4476, 1360

Auto

72.7 17%

Teleop

222.4 51%

Endgame

141.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 7757, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 7757, 9062

Auto

42.0 20%

Teleop

104.3 49%

Endgame

68.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score444.4pts

Blue projected score230.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214.2
Score range: 179–495
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 281.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.8Season APEX304.4

72.7Auto42

222.4Teleop104.3

141.4Endgame68.3

43Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	35
teleop	288	61
endgame	100	33
foul	0	15
total	484	144

Result

Final score

484 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Match videos

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