Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

414.03 – 432

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

325 – 453

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.1 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 181.75Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 59.68Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 172.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.8 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 15.23Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 220.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 195.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 7659, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

414 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 7659, 3161

Auto

68.7 17%

Teleop

231.2 59%

Endgame

93.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 4476, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

432 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 4476, 1360

Auto

70.1 16%

Teleop

232.9 55%

Endgame

122.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score414pts

Blue projected score432pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 361–485
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 778 vs event baseline 292.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.1Season APEX567.8

68.7Auto70.1

231.2Teleop232.9

93.9Endgame122.7

2Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	85
teleop	155	245
endgame	109	118
foul	0	5
total	325	453

Result

Final score

325 – 453

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Match videos

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