Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

441.53 – 436.04

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

329 – 398

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.4 ±9.5

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -32.48Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 276.84Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 197.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.8 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 16.58Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 222.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 197.23Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6854, 1325, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1325, 3683

Auto

91.4 21%

Teleop

241.3 55%

Endgame

103.0 24%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 4476, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

436 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 4476, 1360

Auto

68.4 16%

Teleop

234.3 54%

Endgame

127.5 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score441.5pts

Blue projected score436pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.5
Score range: 384–494
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 727 vs event baseline 291.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.4Season APEX567.8

91.4Auto68.4

241.3Teleop234.3

103Endgame127.5

25Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	82
teleop	141	219
endgame	118	87
foul	0	10
total	329	398

Result

Final score

329 – 398

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 pts

Match videos

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