Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

435.57 – 198.5

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

496 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.4 ±9.5

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -32.51Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 273.92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 194.16Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±10.4

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 116.1Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 28.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 53.66Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6854, 1325, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1325, 3683

Auto

86.2 20%

Teleop

235.8 55%

Endgame

106.2 25%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 7757, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 7757, 9062

Auto

33.9 19%

Teleop

89.0 49%

Endgame

60.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score435.6pts

Blue projected score198.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237.1
Score range: 148–487
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 284.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.4Season APEX304.4

86.2Auto33.9

235.8Teleop89

106.2Endgame60.2

23Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	37
teleop	276	62
endgame	93	59
foul	0	0
total	496	158

Result

Final score

496 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Match videos

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