Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.6 – 244.95

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

339 – 563

Prediction correct · off by 226.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.7 ±10

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 10.31Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 140.41Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 53.88Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 791.2 ±9.9

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 133.56Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 101.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 10.31Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6110, 1325, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6110, 1325, 9562

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

105.8 52%

Endgame

62.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1114, 4476, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

245 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1114, 4476, 11428

Auto

55.4 23%

Teleop

115.6 49%

Endgame

67.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.6pts

Blue projected score245pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.3
Score range: 156–294
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 272.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.7Season APEX791.2

36.8Auto55.4

105.8Teleop115.6

62Endgame67.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	107
teleop	168	338
endgame	78	118
foul	5	0
total	339	563

Result

Final score

339 – 563

Prediction correct · off by 226.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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