Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.55 – 255.18

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.9 ±10.4

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 40.03Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 26.83Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 20.69Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.1 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 26.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 177.88Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 51.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7476, 7757, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7476, 7757, 9263

Auto

27.7 33%

Teleop

28.8 34%

Endgame

27.9 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5672, 1241, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 1241, 9062

Auto

25.8 11%

Teleop

138.5 57%

Endgame

79.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.6pts

Blue projected score255.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.6
Score range: 34–309
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 300.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.9Season APEX581.1

27.7Auto25.8

28.8Teleop138.5

27.9Endgame79.6

18Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	11
teleop	64	196
endgame	24	117
foul	0	0
total	122	324

Result

Final score

122 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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