Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.17 – 127.68

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 135.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.2 ±9.8

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 36.9Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 9.12Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 281.15Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.7 ±11.6

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 147.24Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 9.19Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -28.75Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6865, 9263, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6865, 9263, 1114

Auto

76.6 23%

Teleop

186.0 57%

Endgame

65.6 20%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3161, 11002, 6854

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3161, 11002, 6854

Auto

19.0 17%

Teleop

60.9 53%

Endgame

34.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score327.2pts

Blue projected score127.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.5
Score range: 78–377
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 726 vs event baseline 277.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.2Season APEX271.7

76.6Auto19

186Teleop60.9

65.6Endgame34.8

4Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	47
teleop	262	110
endgame	107	51
foul	30	10
total	508	218

Result

Final score

508 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 135.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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