Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

497.49 – 434.27

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

541 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604 ±8.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 192.22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 277.09Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 28.18Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 594.1 ±10.5

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 22.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 289.12Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 123.13Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3683, 1325, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

497.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3683, 1325, 2852

Auto

94.0 19%

Teleop

293.8 61%

Endgame

97.7 20%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6110, 2056, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6110, 2056, 6978

Auto

98.4 23%

Teleop

239.5 56%

Endgame

87.1 20%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score497.5pts

Blue projected score434.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.2
Score range: 385–546
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1063 vs event baseline 272.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604Season APEX594.1

94Auto98.4

293.8Teleop239.5

97.7Endgame87.1

38Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	132
teleop	266	301
endgame	148	89
foul	5	0
total	541	522

Result

Final score

541 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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