Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.58 – 236.29

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.4 ±11.1

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 21.14Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 15.23Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 26.21Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.4 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 151.83Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 47.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 37.11Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11428, 6975, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11428, 6975, 8349

Auto

16.3 24%

Teleop

17.2 25%

Endgame

34.8 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 5672, 7659

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 5672, 7659

Auto

21.4 9%

Teleop

139.5 60%

Endgame

72.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score236.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -173.7
Score range: 13–286
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 275.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.4Season APEX531.4

16.3Auto21.4

17.2Teleop139.5

34.8Endgame72.5

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	14	126
endgame	7	49
foul	0	20
total	40	212

Result

Final score

40 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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