Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.89 – 297.11

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

201 – 321

Prediction missed · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491 ±10.5

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 307.75Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 36.7Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 16.44Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±9.3

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 55.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 223.2Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 18.12Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2056, 6865, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2056, 6865, 11002

Auto

85.6 25%

Teleop

200.9 58%

Endgame

61.6 18%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7659, 4476, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7659, 4476, 8349

Auto

51.6 18%

Teleop

155.3 54%

Endgame

82.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score360.9pts

Blue projected score297.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.8
Score range: 243–415
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 300.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491Season APEX445.9

85.6Auto51.6

200.9Teleop155.3

61.6Endgame82.7

17Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	66
teleop	124	164
endgame	10	76
foul	10	15
total	201	321

Result

Final score

201 – 321

Prediction missed · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.