Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.3 – 50.5

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.9 ±9.8

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 199.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 38.2Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 53.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±11

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 3.21Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 34.37Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 12.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 6865, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1360, 6865, 2013

Auto

50.7 18%

Teleop

152.6 55%

Endgame

73.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11002, 7757, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11002, 7757, 10514

Auto

27.1 53%

Teleop

18.0 35%

Endgame

5.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291.3pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.8
Score range: 1–341
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 276.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.9Season APEX158.1

50.7Auto27.1

152.6Teleop18

73.3Endgame5.9

29Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	29
teleop	180	26
endgame	66	36
foul	0	45
total	301	136

Result

Final score

301 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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