Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

493.03 – 548.01

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 188 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.1 ±9.8

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 152.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 49.07Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 291.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±8.8

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 32.53Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 213.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 301.54Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3161, 7476, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

493 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3161, 7476, 1114

Auto

104.1 21%

Teleop

282.7 57%

Endgame

107.0 22%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9263, 3683, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

548 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 3683, 1325

Auto

99.7 18%

Teleop

331.2 61%

Endgame

112.2 21%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score493pts

Blue projected score548pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: 443–598
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 275.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.1Season APEX611.4

104.1Auto99.7

282.7Teleop331.2

107Endgame112.2

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	73
teleop	211	151
endgame	76	54
foul	15	0
total	387	278

Result

Final score

387 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 188 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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