Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.65 – 98.11

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.6 ±9.8

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 217.69Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 61.42Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 120.54Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±11

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 28.24Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 49.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 20.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 9562, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.7 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 9562, 6978

Auto

76.6 20%

Teleop

197.1 51%

Endgame

113.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2852, 5672, 6110

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 5672, 6110

Auto

25.3 28%

Teleop

32.6 37%

Endgame

31.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.94 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score399.7pts

Blue projected score98.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 301.5
Score range: 48–450
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 276.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.6Season APEX240.1

76.6Auto25.3

197.1Teleop32.6

113.1Endgame31.1

10Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	244	49
endgame	124	24
foul	0	5
total	395	98

Result

Final score

395 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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